The Rise of the Mid Majors in the NCAA Basketball Tournament

There have always been upsets in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, but it seems we are seeing more and more low seeds beating higher seeded, established programs. This was especially true in Round One of this year’s tournament, as schools from Mid Major conferences eschewed being one and done and shocked some of the perennial big school teams.

Take for example, Oakland University, located in Rochester, Michigan and not Oakland, California. The 14 seed in the South Region and winner of the Horizon League played third seeded Kentucky, one of the most successful basketball programs in history. The Wildcats have won eight NCAA championships, while Oakland, which wasn’t a Division I school until 1999, had one victory in the tournament. But the Golden Grizzlies, led by Jack Gohlke’s 10 three point baskets, beat the SEC powerhouse 80-76. Gohlke is a graduate transfer who spent his earlier career playing for Division II Hillsdale College and driving an Uber for some side cash.

The Wildcats, under coach John Calipari, won the NCAA championship in 2012, but have been bounced in the first or second round each of the last three seasons. The Wildcats have been focused on getting players who are one and done as potential NBA lottery picks. That has given them success in the regular season, but its hard to build a team with a great deal of turnover every year, something Mid Major conferences don’t deal with as much, even with the transfer portal. Kentucky wasn’t the only SEC program to take it on the chin in Round One to a Mid Major team. Auburn, the #4 seed in the East lost to #13 Yale 78-76. The SEC in general had a bad 1st round with #7 Florida losing to #10 Colorado 102-100 in the South, #8 Mississippi State losing to #9 Michigan State 69-51 in the West, and #6 South Carolina losing to #11 Oregon 87-73 in the Midwest. Only Tennessee, Alabama, and Texas A & M carried the SEC flag forward into Round 2.

There were a couple other Mid Major upsets of note. #12 Grand Canyon beat #5 St. Mary’s 75-66 in the West. St. Mary’s is in the West Coast Conference, and while that may not be considered the same as the SEC or Big 10, it is the conference that has also has Gonzaga, a school that was the national runner up in 2017 and 2021, and was an Elite Eight school last year. Grand Canyon is in the WAC, which includes house hold names like Tarleton State, Utah Tech, and Texas-Rio Grande Valley. Finally, #12 James Madison of the Sun Belt Conference beat #5 Wisconsin of the Big 10 72-61.

Last season Florida Atlantic of the American Conference and San Diego State of the Mountain West both went to the Final Four. UCONN, which does play in a power conference, won the tournament last year and the Big East champs are a favorite to win it all again this year. But the success of schools from outside of the big time power conferences means we’ll see more of them advance deeper into the tournament, and perhaps a Mid Major school will be champion within a few years. Maybe a very few.