Fikkle Fame’s Prediction for Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl LIII Los Angeles Rams (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (13-5) at Atlanta February 3, 2019. Patriots favored by 2 1/2. O/U: 56.5

The teams did not meet in the regular season. This is the fourth Super Bowl for the Rams and first since Super Bowl XXXVII, following the 2001 season. They are 1-2 in their previous appearances, including a loss to New England in their last appearance (yes,Tom Brady was  the Patriots quarterback in that one). This is the 11th Super Bowl for New England; they are 5-5. That fifth loss was to the Philadelphia Eagles last year.

Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles returned to the Super Bowl for the first time in several years and upset the Patriots 41-33. This season, the Rams are returning to the Super Bowl for the first time in several years and are a slight underdog to the Patriots. So will history repeat itself with an on the rise team beating a New England team that is a perennial Super Bowl participant (this is the Patriot’s third Super Bowl in a row and fourth in five years).

There’s one key difference between the Rams and last year’s Eagles. While both teams scored a lot of points (32.9 points per game for the Rams, 28.6 for the Eagles last year), Philadelphia’s defense was better, allowing just 18.4 points per game while L.A. allowed 24.0 this year; throw out the nine points in two games against the hapless Cardinals and 10 in one game with the equally hapless 49ers and the Rams’ average jumps to 28.1. New England beat the Chiefs 37-31 in the AFC Championship; Kansas City was the top scoring team in the NFL this season with an average of 35.3 points per game. New England also beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the Division Round 41-28; the Chargers had a high scoring offense as well. The Patriots allowed 20.6 points per game, tied for sixth in the NFL.

New England has been unfazed by prolific offenses, and the Rams gave up a lot of points against good opponents even when they won. The Patriots are motivated to win this one after losing last year, and while the Rams have emerged as a power in the NFL and will give the Patriots all that they can handle, this one will go to New England. Patriots 34 Rams 31.