Fikkle Fame’s Prediction for Super Bowl LIV February 2nd, 2020

The Big Game is finally here. The 49ers are making their seventh appearance in the Super Bowl; they won five of their first six, losing in their last appearance in Super Bowl XLVII to the Baltimore Ravens. It’s been 50 years since Kansas City’s last appearance, which was a victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV. The Chiefs only other Super Bowl was the very first one; they lost to Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers in that game.

Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers (15-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. Chiefs favored by 1 1/2. O/U: 54.5. The teams did not meet during the regular season. The Chiefs generate much of their offense through their passing game; QB Patrick Mahomes missed two games due to injury, but passed for 4031 yards and 26 touchdowns in 14 games, with just five interceptions. Tight End Travis Kelce was his favorite target, with 97 receptions for 1229 yards and five touchdowns. The Chiefs were fifth in the NFL in both passing yards (281.1 per game) and scoring (28.2 points per game). They were 23rd in rushing at 98.1 yards per game but that was plenty to keep defenses respecting the running game.

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo passed completed 329 passes for 3978 yards and 27 touchdowns, with 13 interceptions, in 16 games. His favorite target was also a tight end; George Kittle caught 85 passes for 1053 yards and five touchdowns. The 49ers have a very strong ground game, and averaged 144.1 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL. Raheem Mostert rushed for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship game. The Chiefs were 26th in the league against the run, allowing 128.2 yards per game.

If it’s true that “defense wins championships” then San Francisco is in great shape. The 49ers allowed 281.8 yards per game (2nd in the NFL) and a league best 169.2 passing yards per game. In the Divisional Round, the Chiefs fell behind the Texans 24-0 before their high powered offense got in gear and delivered a 51-31 victory. Kansas City cannot get in a big hole like that against the 49ers defense. While we expect a fair amount of scoring in the game (in contrast to last year’s 13-3 Super Snooze) the 49ers defense will make the difference. 49ers 27 Chiefs 24.